By 2052, Immigrant Workers Will Be the Only Source of Labor Force Growth in the U.S. Economy, Study Shows

Latino Donor Collaborative and Wells Fargo published a study last month that revealed that Latinos contributed $3.6 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2020, which would hypothetically rank U.S. Latinos as the fifth largest economy in the world surpassing countries like France, United Kingdom and Canada. Manufacturing alone contributed $457.4 billion to the Latino economy, marking a significant 48.4% year-over-year growth.

Days later, another study revealed that Latinas alone contributed a staggering $1.3 trillion to the nation's economy in 2021. In fact, Latinas have now surpassed Non-Latina women in workforce participation, highlighting their growing presence in industries across the economy.

In all, both studies highlight how immigrant workers have become essential to the growth of the U.S. labor force. Now, a new study, this one by the National Foundation for American Policy , has not only echoed the current impact of immigrants on the economy, but provided a staggering projection: by 2052, U.S.-born workers in the labor force will peak at 146.7 million, and beyond that, only immigrants will sustain labor force growth.

The findings suggest that U.S. economic growth will become increasingly dependent on immigration as retiring Baby Boomers leave the workforce and birth rates stagnate: "Even before mid-century, Americans will see a stagnating number of U.S. born between 25 and 54," reads the reports. "The U.S.-born population and the U.S. born of prime working age (25-54) will peak in 2042."

In fact, the trend is already visible. Between 2018 and 2024, workers with U.S.-born parents declined by 1.3 million, while immigrants and their children added 5.4 million workers, resulting in a net increase of over four million in the labor force.

Other findings from the study also lay bare several aspects that will contribute to future trends. Over the last five years, for example, 3.6 million foreign-born workers have joined the U.S. labor force, compared to just 479,000 U.S.-born workers. Key factors contributing to this trend include the aging American population and pandemic-related deaths and retirements.

Additionally, the foreign-born share of the U.S. labor force has grown significantly, rising from 9.8% in 1994 to 19.1% in 2024, as immigrants are not only filling low-skill jobs but are also contributing to high-skill sectors. Over the last two decades, the percentage of foreign-born workers with graduate degrees has nearly doubled, particularly in fields like science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).

This growing reliance on immigrant labor across the skill spectrum suggests that immigration will be critical to addressing future labor shortages in several sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, and technology.

The study concludes that "increasing the supply of workers through immigration and temporary work visas will reduce illegal immigration, enhance labor force growth and improve Americans' daily lives and living standards."