2012 Presidential Election and the Latino Vote: Florida Latinos Narrowly Support Obama

With Election Day just four days away and Latinos expected to play an integral role, a new poll by Latino Decisions shows that nearly 51 percent of likely Latino voters in Florida support President Obama while 44 percent support GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

Overall, Latinos make up 13.1 percent of Florida's more than 11.2 million registered voters. Among Latino registered voters, 452,619 are registered as Republicans, making up 11.1 percent of all Republican registered voters. And 564,513 Latino registered voters are registered as Democrats, representing 12.4 percent of all Democratic registered voters.

The pollsters suggest that Obama is popular among Latinos in Florida because of immigration.

"One might assume that this issue is not as salient among Florida's Latinos because the state is relatively isolated from the heated immigration debate in the Southwestern United States," Latino Decisions Guest Blogger Casey Klofstad said. "When you directly ask how important immigration is to their vote, Latinos in Florida indicate that it is very important, equally among those who do and do not know an undocumented immigrant given the margin of error."

A September Latino Decisions' poll show that Latinos in Florida are much more enthused by Obama's recent approach to immigration than Romney's.

In June, Obama announced that his administration will stop deporting undocumented immigrant youths who grew up in the United States and who meet certain requirements. The government will also offer them a chance to apply for work permits.

Romney has not gotten into the specifics of how he would work with Democrats and Republicans on the approach to repairing the U.S. immigration system.

In September, Romney addressed the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and told them that America must first get control of its borders or it will never achieve a legal immigration system that is fair and efficient.

"I believe we can all agree that what we need are fair and enforceable immigration laws that will stem the flow of illegal immigration, while strengthening legal immigration," Romney is expected to say. "America is a nation of immigrants, and immigration is essential to our economic growth and prosperity."

Thirty-two percent of the respondents who say they know an undocumented immigrant said immigration is one of the most important issues to them in this election and 53 percent said they are more enthusiastic to vote for Obama because of of his immigration policy.

A study released late September said new voting laws in 23 of the 50 states could keep more than 10 million Hispanic U.S. citizens from registering and voting and 45 percent of Latino voters in Florida say they are "very concerned" that "legal voters would be purged from Florida's registration rolls."

"All told, barring any wild change in the political landscape, the President will win the majority of Latino votes in the State of Florida and turnout should be high," Klofstad said. "What remains to be seen is whether this will be enough to secure him Florida's 29 electoral votes."